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Pre-market futures are off early morning lows, but still fairly deep in the red at this hour. Following a prime-time speech from President Trump yesterday, where investors sought signs that the military conflict in Iran would soon come to an end, the lack of details toward that end left us wanting. The Dow is -634 points at this hour, -1.35%, the S&P 500 is -98 points, -1.48%, the Nasdaq -459 points, -1.90%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 -51 points, -2.05%.
Oil prices shot up +12% earlier this morning, but have cooled somewhat of late. The WTI went up to $112 per barrel (/bbl) this morning, while the Brent rose +8% to $109/bbl (contract expiration dates explain how WTI is at a higher price point, which is not normal). The prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz clamps 20 million barrels of oil per day, and without a solution in view, the initial estimate of “four to six weeks” of a military operation in Iran threatens to go on far longer. (We’re already in Week 5.)
Jobless Claims Reflect a Healthy Labor Market
Meanwhile, all appears to be hunky dory on Weekly Jobless Claims. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims reached 202K, historically very low and the slimmest headline since the first half of January, when seasonal employment elements were still in play. New jobless claims are currently down to nearly two-year lows.
Continuing Claims bumped up somewhat to 1.841 million two weeks ago (a week in arrears from new claims), but from a downwardly revised 1.816 million the previous week, which we haven’t seen since May of 2024. We continue to see a “low hire/low fire” labor environment, which tends to make these weekly labor numbers look much stronger than we’ve seen in other employment reports (see below).
Offices Closed Friday, but BLS Jobs Still Reports
NOTE: Zacks’ offices are closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday, as are the domestic markets. Yet the new Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will still be released Friday morning. Investors will have all weekend to marinate in the results before trading on the news come Monday.
Expectations are for +59K jobs to have been created in March, up from the -92K reported a month ago, which was the deepest cut to domestic jobs since October 2025’s dire -140K. Our four-month average is currently the lowest we’ve seen since the Covid pandemic: -20K per month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at a still-docile 4.4%.
Wage growth is predicted to tick down 10 basis points (bps) both month over month and year over year, to +0.3% and +3.7%, respectively. As we saw in Wednesday’s ADP (ADP - Free Report) private sector jobs report for March, those who changed jobs saw a slightly higher increase in pay, although these figures are still subdued overall.
Key also in these numbers will be revisions to previous months, which are often significant. Obviously, revisions can go either way, but of late they generally move lower. It’s tough to anticipate, however, even with ADP figures just reported, somewhat due to the placid jobless claims reports we keep getting every week.
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Jobless Claims Come in Lower-Than-Expected
Pre-market futures are off early morning lows, but still fairly deep in the red at this hour. Following a prime-time speech from President Trump yesterday, where investors sought signs that the military conflict in Iran would soon come to an end, the lack of details toward that end left us wanting. The Dow is -634 points at this hour, -1.35%, the S&P 500 is -98 points, -1.48%, the Nasdaq -459 points, -1.90%, and the small-cap Russell 2000 -51 points, -2.05%.
Oil prices shot up +12% earlier this morning, but have cooled somewhat of late. The WTI went up to $112 per barrel (/bbl) this morning, while the Brent rose +8% to $109/bbl (contract expiration dates explain how WTI is at a higher price point, which is not normal). The prolonged closing of the Strait of Hormuz clamps 20 million barrels of oil per day, and without a solution in view, the initial estimate of “four to six weeks” of a military operation in Iran threatens to go on far longer. (We’re already in Week 5.)
Jobless Claims Reflect a Healthy Labor Market
Meanwhile, all appears to be hunky dory on Weekly Jobless Claims. Last week’s Initial Jobless Claims reached 202K, historically very low and the slimmest headline since the first half of January, when seasonal employment elements were still in play. New jobless claims are currently down to nearly two-year lows.
Continuing Claims bumped up somewhat to 1.841 million two weeks ago (a week in arrears from new claims), but from a downwardly revised 1.816 million the previous week, which we haven’t seen since May of 2024. We continue to see a “low hire/low fire” labor environment, which tends to make these weekly labor numbers look much stronger than we’ve seen in other employment reports (see below).
Offices Closed Friday, but BLS Jobs Still Reports
NOTE: Zacks’ offices are closed tomorrow in observance of Good Friday, as are the domestic markets. Yet the new Employment Situation report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will still be released Friday morning. Investors will have all weekend to marinate in the results before trading on the news come Monday.
Expectations are for +59K jobs to have been created in March, up from the -92K reported a month ago, which was the deepest cut to domestic jobs since October 2025’s dire -140K. Our four-month average is currently the lowest we’ve seen since the Covid pandemic: -20K per month. The Unemployment Rate is expected to remain at a still-docile 4.4%.
Wage growth is predicted to tick down 10 basis points (bps) both month over month and year over year, to +0.3% and +3.7%, respectively. As we saw in Wednesday’s ADP (ADP - Free Report) private sector jobs report for March, those who changed jobs saw a slightly higher increase in pay, although these figures are still subdued overall.
Key also in these numbers will be revisions to previous months, which are often significant. Obviously, revisions can go either way, but of late they generally move lower. It’s tough to anticipate, however, even with ADP figures just reported, somewhat due to the placid jobless claims reports we keep getting every week.